The nation’s longest home price boom has ended after a run-up lasting 10½ years. Nationally, prices have declined 3.1% from the peak in June, according to data from the American Enterprise Institute’s (AEI) Housing Center. While all 60 largest metros have begun experiencing year-on-year price declines, San Jose, Seattle, and San Francisco have led the way with declines of 15.5%, 13.4%, and 12.7% from their respective peaks (see #1 in graphic below).
November’s months’ supply & active listings both increased above seasonal trends, but remain at historically low levels. Months’ supply stood at 2.5 months in November 2022, down from 3.0 months in November 2019, but up from 2.1 months in October 2022, and 0.9 months in May 2022 (see #3 in graphic). The months’ supply for the high price tier came in at 6.2 months in November 2022, helping the price weakness for this tier.
The AEI Housing Center provides the most advanced and timely information on home prices available. Measures of home price appreciation like the Case Shiller index have months of lag, meaning the most recent numbers are for September. The Housing Center has published data for November, and with Optimal Blue rate lock data is able to accurately project December 2022 and January 2023 as well.